Dissenting Voices in the Tropics

Written on October 2, 2022

Today, the Brazilian people are choosing not so much what they want, but rather what they no longer want. The world's fourth-largest democracy is facing an unprecedented political confrontation. Voters are being whipped up by accusations of "corrupt thief" versus "lying vermin." The two leading candidates? Incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and his predecessor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, better known as Lula.

One embodies the conservative, religious-nationalist course. The other is returning from political obscurity, scarred by scandals but strengthened by renewed support. This election is more than a national power struggle. It reflects a deeply divided society. Not only in terms of economic inequality, but also ideologically and morally.

A country divided along moral and social fault lines

The political landscape in Latin America is more sharply divided than in Europe. While left and right sides are becoming increasingly blurred in the West, the ideological divide in Brazil remains pronounced. Bolsonaro, a former army captain, represents a conservative bloc that warns of a left-wing dictatorship. Lula, a union leader and former president, counters that Bolsonaro is nostalgic for the military regime that ended in 1985.

Both sides are using their pasts to expose the other. Lula was imprisoned for corruption but acquitted due to procedural errors. Bolsonaro, himself accused of corruption related to the procurement of coronavirus vaccines, claims to be the victim of a left-wing conspiracy. The result is a toxic campaign, in which both candidates primarily rely on fear and distrust.

The Amazon rainforest as a geopolitical barometer

One of the most controversial issues is the rainforest. Under Bolsonaro, deforestation has increased by 73 percent. He relaxed environmental laws and cut budgets for forest protection. His defense: economic growth and jobs for poor communities in the Amazon. Lula is taking the opposite course. He promises to tackle illegal logging and mining and wants to prioritize climate policy.

The stakes are not only ecological, but also geopolitical. France refuses to ratify a trade agreement with South America as long as deforestation continues. Lula supports the agreement, Bolsonaro opposes it. The forest is thus not only a national heritage site, but also a diplomatic battleground.

Rhetoric versus reality

Although Brazilian financial markets reacted negatively to Lula's release, the country experienced its economic peak during his presidency. Under Bolsonaro, economic growth has declined, and the country is struggling with skyrocketing inflation and unemployment. Nevertheless, Bolsonaro blames the economic malaise on external factors such as COVID-19 and the energy crisis.

Lula's social reform plans—higher minimum wages, child benefits, and early retirement—are welcomed by poor Brazilians but criticized as ineffective and increasing dependency. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is offering his own subsidy programs, partly trying to undermine Lula's left-wing vote.

Religion or morality

Bolsonaro's core message is anchored in conservative values: God, country, family, and freedom. His support within the evangelical movement—a third of the population—is substantial. He fiercely opposes abortion, gun restrictions, and LGBTQ+ education. His campaign portrays Lula as anti-Christian and morally dangerous.

Lula, on the other hand, promises freedom of religion and emphasizes his distance from leftist regimes like Ortega's in Nicaragua. He seeks connections with moderate believers and progressive citizens. The division between secular and religious, progressive and traditional, cuts deeply across families and communities.

Polarization

Both candidates are running a negative campaign, primarily explaining why the other shouldn't be elected. Many Brazilians are therefore voting strategically: not for one candidate, but against their opponent.

Bolsonaro has been hinting at election fraud for months. Without evidence, he claims the electronic voting system could be manipulated. International observers are present in large numbers to monitor the process. The president himself says he sees only three possible outcomes: prison, death, or victory.

The broader meaning

It is uncertain whether Lula will achieve the required 50 percent majority today. A second round is likely on October 30th. Until then, the country will remain in suspense. The polarization now visible in Brazil is symptomatic of broader developments in the West: growing distrust, ideological fragmentation, and the erosion of common ground.

The question is not only who will win the election, but whether the country will accept the outcome. The ghost of the US Capitol attack is haunting Latin America. The outcome in Brazil will have repercussions not only nationally but also internationally.